Ernesto Update Aug. 27th

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITYAT 96 HOURS ASSUMES SOME WEAKENING DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND. HOWEVER....ERNESTO COULD APPROACH CATEGORY 3 STATUS PRIOR TO THEPROJECTED LANDFALL IN WESTERN FLORIDA. INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/8. A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARDTRACK IS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXTCOUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD TAKE ERNESTO OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTIONOF CUBA. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERNUNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGHDROPS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI IN 3-5 DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE AMORE NORTHWARD HEADING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 0600 UTCRUNS OF THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUSRUN BUT THE 0600 UTC NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIALFORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE RIGHT TO BE CLOSER TOTHE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS EAST OF THE LATEST GFDL MODEL TRACK.A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE FLORIDAKEYS AS EARLY AS 2100 UTC TODAY.
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